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| The Kentucky Derby |
Who Won The Kentucky Derby - Think of the Kentucky Derby as the NFL Draft, except with big hats and mint juleps. Back to the Derby. Twenty-seven days ago, a chestnut colt named California Chrome won the Santa Anita Derby, the most important West Coast prep race for the Kentucky Derby. In the home stretch, Chrome never felt the sting of jockey Victor Espinoza's whip and still finished 5 ¼ lengths in front of Hoppertunity, who three weeks earlier had won the Rebel Stakes, another key Derby prep, in Arkansas. After the Santa Anita Derby it was almost universally agreed that California Chrome was the deserving favorite for the Kentucky Derby and the best three-year-old racehorse in training, possibly by a wide margin.
Now we are on the eve of the running of the 140th Derby and California Chrome has undergone a full dose of draft-prospect dissection. Wednesday evening's post-position draw triggered another round of Chrome angst. (The Derby post-position draw is undeniably important because of the of the unusual and unwieldy 20-horse field; it was painful watching Wood Memorial winner Wicked Strong's trainer, Jimmy Jerkens, try to convince himself that the No. 20 post position wasn't a death sentence.) But after Chrome drew the No. 5 starting position, attention quickly turned to whether jockey Victor Espinoza would be able to break Chrome sharply (because in two of his last five starts, Chrome broke sluggishly) and even if he did break well, would he then be able to avoid getting cooked by a fast pace?
Having ingested all of this, I'm picking California Chrome to win the Derby. The track? Traffic? At his best, California Chrome glides over the surface of a race track like he is weightless. The race will most likely be blindingly fast, just as the last two Derbies were. Louisiana Derby winner Vicar's In Trouble, with jockey Rosie Napravnik, is stuck in the No. 1 post. race from far behind). Espinoza, meanwhile, will push California Chrome out of the gate alongside the speed horses, and then settle him back into a second flight. "Victor can do anything he wants with that horse," says veteran jockey Gary Stevens, a three-time Derby winner who will ride Candy Boy on Saturday.
The second flight will also include Wood Memorial runner-up Samraat, Louisiana Derby runner-up Intense Holiday and Rebel runner-up Tapiture. Look for Arkansas Derby winner Danza to stalk California Chrome, and expect Wicked Strong to steady his way into the middle of the pack, clear of trouble on the outside.
The speed will die entering the far turn, because in the Derby the speed always dies. Espinoza will let California Chrome carry him to the front (Espinoza has used his whip on Chrome only once in four races) and he will extend to a four-length lead leaving the quarter pole. Tapiture will fade, saving the Derby and the racing game in general from the storm that would ensue if rainer Steve Asmussen, star of PETA's notorious horse racing video, won the roses. LAYDEN: Clouds of controversy loom over Churchill Downs during Derby week
Espinoza will keep California Chrome together beneath the wire, a length clear of the equally tough Danza. Chrome becomes the first California-bred Derby winner in 52 years, and at age 77, trainer Art Sherman becomes the oldest Derby-winning trainer in history.
